CO129-622-9 Material for 'vetting' for lecture 9-11-1949 - 14-11-1949 — Page 22

on the Colony that is within the bounds of reason at present.

In HONG KONG there is great scope for disruptive elements to stir up trouble. Prior to the last war the population was half a million, to-day it is rising two millions, and the vast majority

Their ties are if anything to have no allegiance to HONG KONG. CHINA herself, but probably first of all to their own personal

self interests. Most of the inhabitants have come there to try and find conditions for work and trade which offer better security

than in CHINA.

You will appreciate that the raising of Police and Local Forces, and ensuring the loyalty of personnel working the essential services is a somewhat dangerous proposition with a population of such doubtful allegiance.

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There, less than in most other places can we rely on a majority whose loyalty to the existing regime is undoubted.

This

But I would forecast that what will sway the scale in our favour more than anything else is a thoroughly firm policy. will tend to bring the "swingers" down on our side of the fence.

So I would leave HONG KONG now hoping that I have made it clear that in my view the short term danger to that place is rather from the inside than from without, and that it is through a showing of strength and firm-handling of the situation by us that success will follow. Lastly, that if we permit ourselves to be driven out of HONG KONG, I believe it to be the beginning of the end of effective Western influence in the Far East.

9. MALAYA

Here we find oursel ves facing for the

To turn now to MALAYA. first time actual militant Communist revolt.

First of all the movement is sponsored almost 100% by

Chinese; mostly recent

immigrants at that.

There are of course

/a few